CCPO RESEARCHers Predict Ice Melt in Antarctic

2014年2月26日

海洋学家Klinck和Hofmann说 迈克尔Dinniman

罗斯海, 一个主要的, 具有生物生产力的南极生态系统, will be extensively modified by climate change in the coming decades as rising temperatures and changing wind patterns create longer periods of ice-free open water and affect the life cycles of both predators and prey, according to a paper published by Virginia researchers.

作者来自威廉学院 & Mary's Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) and 最靠谱的网赌软件's Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography (CCPO), are collaborators on National Science Foundation-supported research.

While conceding that "predicting future changes in ecosystems is challenging,RESEARCH人员写道 in their paper published Feb. 26 in Geophysical RESEARCH 信s that the changes predicted by their computer model have the potential to create "significant but unpredictable impacts on the 海洋's most pristine ecosystem."

风和温度都在变化, 作者写道, will affect the ecological balance at the base of the Antarctic food web-including changes in distributions of algae, shrimp-like krill and Antarctic silverfish-which, 反过来, may be expected to cause disruptions in the upper portions of the food web, 包括企鹅, 海豹和鲸鱼, 它们以这些物种为食.

这篇论文是沃克·史密斯写的, a professor at VIMS; CCPO professors Eileen Hofmann and John Klinck; and CCPO research scientist 迈克尔Dinniman. Klinck是CCPO的主任.

霍夫曼说,, "The model results suggest that the current trend of increasing sea ice in the Ross Sea will shift and that it will become more ice free in the summer, which would have 一个主要的 effect on the food web, especially on organisms that depend on sea ice for their life history, such as Antarctic krill and Adélie penguins."

Added Smith: "罗斯海 is critically important in regulating the production of Antarctica's sea ice overall and is biologically very productive, which makes changes in its physical environment of global concern."

The researchers used information drawn from a computer model of sea-ice, 海洋, atmosphere and ice-shelf interactions-the Regional Ocean 建模 System-to make their predictions.

They note that over the past 50 years the distribution and extent of Antarctic sea ice, 或是漂浮在海面上的冰, 已经发生了巨大的变化. Among these changes is a documented decrease of ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen sector, but also an increase of sea ice in the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica.

观察结果显示, 他们写, that "the duration of ice-free days on the Ross Sea continental shelf has decreased by over two months over the past three decades," which may have had effects on the current balance of biological productivity and the roles of various creatures and microscopic plants in the 海洋 ecosystem.

但, 他们指出, "future projections of regional air temperature change, 然而, suggest that substantial warming will occur in the next century in the Ross Sea sector" while wind speeds are predicted to change. "These changes are expected to reverse the sea-ice trends in the future; 然而, the projected changes in heat content on the continental shelf and ecosystems dynamics that will occur 结果是 of such changes remain far from certain."

The model indicates that summer sea ice in the Ross Sea could decrease by more than half (56 percent) by 2050 and by more than three-quarters (78 percent) by 2100. 同时, the summer mixing of shallow and deep waters in the region 结果是 of other changes is expected to decrease.

While increased open water will benefit diatoms, the preferred food source of many plant-eating predators such as krill, 一些磷虾品种, 比如水晶磷虾, 喜欢多冰的栖息地, 它们用来躲避捕食者.

反过来, 小须鲸, Adélie and Emperor penguins and crabeater seals that feed on crystal krill would have less food available if the crystal krill population were reduced.

海冰覆盖较少, 然而, more humpback whales could enter the Ross Sea in the summer, 增加磷虾的捕食. 或阿德利, 哪一种在冰边捕食银鱼, would have to travel farther from their nests and, 结果是, be potentially more vulnerable to leopard seal predation.

While it is difficult to know specifically what changes the Ross Sea ecosystem will face, 该模型预测, 如果准确, 暗示它们可能影响深远.

"Regardless of the exact nature of the alterations,RESEARCH人员写道, "substantial portions of the food web that depend on ice in their life cycles will be negatively impacted, 导致严重的生态破坏."