Using Math to Predict New COVID-19 Cases
2020年8月21日
Norou Diawara
文/ Tiffany Whitfield
Using mathematics and statistics to predict the number of new COVID-19 cases is what Norou Diawara is researching at 最靠谱的网赌软件. "We are proposing a prediction of new cases performed on a weekly basis,迪亚瓦拉说, Professor of Statistics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics.
Not only can he predict the number of new cases, but he can pinpoint evolving hotspots and targeted locations. “目前, I am working on COVID-19 progression in space and time, and profiling the trends based on different locations/areas,迪亚瓦拉说.
It is critical to find suitable statistical models that can be used to identify risk associated with COVID-19. Diawara说, "such models will allow us to monitor the spread of the disease in the targeted locations and time."
Data on new cases due to COVID-19 were collected via Situation Reports published by the World 健康 组织. To add robustness to the analysis, data from the targeted countries and their neighboring countries are collected into clusters.
Statistical models were applied to the data to account for the "spatial dependency in the countries along with the temporal dimension of the disease,迪亚瓦拉说. 信息 from these models could be used by health organizations to direct guidelines and regulations specific to those countries.
Diawara has previously applied such statistical techniques during the Ebola outbreak in 2015. The kind of models he uses, capture measures of spatial correlations similarities and differences in locations and blocks, while including time as covariates. They can also be applied in epidemiology, economy, geography and demography research.
"My research is data driven,迪亚瓦拉说. It has applications in the medical field, social sciences, engineering and more. But more importantly, it is collaborative and solution oriented. 在医学领域, "I say that COVID-19 reminds me of the fact that many phenomena are space and time driven, and more can be done in this area of research,迪亚瓦拉说. "When we can understand the behaviors and events, the conclusions are sometimes eye opening and unexpected."
也, Diawara works jointly with many researchers and helps his students learn statistical topics that advance their understanding of challenges to society in today's world. "We work on simulated and real data examples like COVID-19 and Ebola,迪亚瓦拉说. Through these real world applications, ODU students see how the data analysis techniques they are learning can be used in decision making
对于Diawara, ODU is a place where faculty and students have opportunities to express their ideas and concerns, pursue research to the highest levels and solve global problems. Diawara说, 当我想到科学的时候, I think of collaborations from diverse backgrounds, and realize how the world is indeed a small place and we are all in it as one."
